AGP Executive Report

US-Iran deal and Strait of Hormuz: Donald Trump says a peace deal with Iran is complete and orders the Strait of Hormuz to reopen, while Iran has not confirmed the timing and hardliners push back on the terms. Regional logistics shift: Turkey and Saudi Arabia plan a rail link through Jordan and Syria to move freight and energy toward Europe, aiming to offset Hormuz disruption. Damascus-Lebanon ties: Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa urges unity and denies reports of Syrian forces entering Lebanon, saying border demarcation is not a priority. Security and Syria-linked fronts: Israel says it killed senior Hezbollah commander Ali Musa Daqduq, described as a key figure behind attacks and Hezbollah’s “Golan” entrenchment in Syria. Domestic Syria governance: Syria’s Communications Ministry blocks online gambling and betting sites, citing legal violations and risks to families. Local security in Hasakah: Asayish warn residents about fraudulent car-sale platforms and lure tactics tied to robberies and killings. Culture and heritage: A restored Umayyad mural from Qasr al-Hayr al-Gharbi is highlighted at the National Museum of Damascus.

Drug Control: Syria says it dismantled an international drug trafficking network with Iraq, arresting members and seizing 800,000 captagon pills and 60 kg of hashish in Homs and Deir ez-Zor. Kurdish Politics: Kurdish leaders mark 69 years since the first Kurdish party in Syria, saying the Kurdish question has shifted from identity demands to a core debate over Syria’s political future. Lebanon-Syria Tensions: President Ahmed al-Sharaa denies plans to intervene militarily in Lebanon and says border demarcation is not a priority amid Lebanon’s crisis and displacement. Southern Syria Incursions: Israeli forces reportedly entered Umm Batna in Quneitra with more than 20 vehicles for hours, setting up a temporary position and conducting searches. Security & Governance: Syria says it is modernizing its railway sector to restore damaged lines and improve regional connectivity. Diplomacy: Syria has been invited to the G7 summit in France as a guest nation, with Al-Sharaa set to attend. Human Impact: Euphrates drownings in Deir ez-Zor have reportedly reached about 35, mostly involving children and young men.

ISIS Crackdown in Syria: Syrian authorities say they arrested 235 ISIS suspects in three months, disrupting seven planned attacks across Damascus, Aleppo, Hama, Homs, and Deir ez-Zor, seizing explosives, weapons, vehicles, and electronic devices. Daraa Security Incident: Israeli forces opened fire on farmers in Wadi Ma’ariya in western Daraa during an incursion, triggering panic and forcing civilians to flee; no casualties were reported. Assad-Era Accountability: Syria arrested Raafat Anwar Al-Amoudi, a former Assad-linked intelligence figure accused of detention, enforced disappearances, and extortion in Daraa during the 2011 uprising. Regional Diplomacy Watch: While not Syria-specific, the week’s biggest storyline is the U.S.-Iran push for a deal that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz—timelines remain disputed as officials trade claims about when signing could happen. Humanitarian Signals: UNHCR reports global forced displacement fell in 2025, with Syria seeing about 1.3 million returns, though returnees still face destruction and limited services.

US-Iran Peace Talks: Pakistan’s PM Shehbaz Sharif says Washington and Tehran have agreed on the “final, agreed upon text” to end their Middle East war, with mediators now working on next steps; Iran’s FM Abbas Araghchi says a deal is “never been closer,” while nuclear details are expected to follow after an initial accord. Israel’s Stance in Syria/Lebanon: Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz reiterates Israel will not withdraw from “security zones” in Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza, even as negotiations with Iran move forward. Quneitra Incursions: Reports say Israeli patrols and raids advanced into Kodna in Quneitra countryside, with drone overflights and heightened alert near the disengagement line. Damascus Life Amid War: A World Cup festival in Damascus is drawing crowds to public screenings and activities, offering a rare pocket of unity and normalcy. EU Migration Rules: The EU Migration and Asylum Pact enters into force, tightening screening and fast-track asylum processes—an issue that still echoes globally after Syria’s 2015 displacement wave.

Damascus-Lebanon Rift: Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa told a delegation from Damascus province that rumors of Syria intervening in Lebanon are “nothing more than rumours,” stressing Damascus wants to end the Lebanon war, not get pulled in, and pointing to the urgent need to address the return of about 1.4 million Syrian refugees in Lebanon. Israel’s “Security Zones”: Israel’s Defense Minister Israel Katz said Israeli forces will not withdraw from “security zones” in Lebanon, Syria and Gaza, and may expand the approach to other “terror” camps in the West Bank. Iran-US Deal Talks: Pakistan’s PM Shehbaz Sharif said the US and Iran have agreed on the “final, agreed upon text” of a framework to end the war, while Iran’s FM Abbas Araqchi said the nuclear program is not part of the current stage and nuclear talks come later. Syrian Conflict Context: A separate report notes the US carried out large-scale strikes on Syria, while another highlights Syria’s cultural restoration push, including the Umayyad Mosque entering a new restoration era.

Diplomacy Shift on Iran: Trump says the U.S. has “ended the war with Iran,” but Tehran hasn’t confirmed a final deal; the emerging “great settlement” hinges on nuclear limits, sanctions relief, and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, with Israel cool to the idea. U.S.-Syria Frontline: Reports say Israeli forces entered southern Syria’s Quneitra countryside and set up temporary checkpoints, including searches and movement restrictions around Ma’ariya and al-Arda. Syria-Türkiye Normalization: Syria reopened its consulate in Gaziantep after a 15-year hiatus, with both foreign ministers framing it as a bridge for restoring state ties. EU Migration Hardening: A new EU asylum pact starts Friday, adding faster border screening, biometric checks, and quicker rejections—rights groups warn it will mean more detention. Refugee Update: UNHCR says global forced displacement fell in 2025 for the first time in a decade, but long-term exile remains severe, with returns to Syria reported amid harsh conditions.

Israel-Syria Front: Israeli occupation forces stormed Ma’ariya and Al-Arda in Syria’s Yarmouk Basin (Daraa countryside), setting up checkpoints and tightly restricting movement of residents and vehicles. Diplomacy & Security: Iraq’s Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi sent a message to Syria’s President Ahmed al-Sharaa urging stronger Baghdad-Damascus coordination on security and the economy, delivered via Iraq’s National Intelligence Service chief. Regional Tensions: Turkey’s Erdoğan warned that Israel’s actions in Syria and Lebanon now threaten Turkey too, saying Ankara’s security “begins in Aleppo” and “begins in Damascus.” Humanitarian & Displacement: UNHCR said global forced displacement fell for the first time in a decade in 2025, but warned many returns— including to Syria—are unsafe and driven by pressure. Energy Links: Iraq is accelerating the Basra-Haditha crude pipeline, designed to move oil toward refineries and connect export routes via Jordan, Syria and Türkiye.

Russia-Syria Military Talks: Russia says it’s discussing a “restructuring” of its military facilities in Syria, with Moscow and Damascus in contact over possible changes to the roles of its bases—an issue now also drawing US congressional scrutiny. Syria Cyber Probe: Syria is investigating a cyberattack after sensitive ministry documents—some dating after the 2024 fall of Assad—appeared online, including correspondence involving Syrian expats and staff salaries. Hasakah Fuel Protests: Protests in southern rural Hasakah have pushed authorities to announce urgent steps, with fuel—especially diesel—and basic services at the center of residents’ demands. UN Displacement Update: UNHCR reports forced displacement fell for the first time in a decade: 117.8 million people were displaced at end-2025, down 5.4 million, but returns to places like Syria often happen under pressure and insecurity. Iraq-Syria Security Drive: Iraq and Syria move to deepen security and economic cooperation, with Baghdad sending a formal message to President Ahmad al-Sharaa outlining a roadmap for tighter coordination. Arab Group UN Push: At the UN Security Council, the Arab Group demanded Israel withdraw from seized Syrian territories and the occupied Golan Heights, calling the incursions violations of sovereignty and international law.

U.S.-Iran Diplomacy Shift: Vice President JD Vance says Washington will pursue a nuclear deal with Iran even if Israel objects, marking a major change in how the U.S. handles the Iran file. Escalation Watch: Trump also vowed fresh strikes after Iran’s decision to step back from peace talks, as the U.S.-Iran exchange continues to rattle the region. Regional Fallout for Syria: Syria condemned Iranian drone and missile attacks on Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan, warning against violations of sovereignty and threats to civilians. Turkey’s Syria-Lebanon Line: Erdogan told lawmakers Israel’s attacks in Syria and Lebanon now threaten Turkey itself, warning Ankara will not ignore attacks targeting Aleppo and Damascus. Russia in Syria: Moscow and Damascus are reportedly discussing “reformatting” how Russian facilities operate, as Russia seeks to keep its key footholds. Damascus-Turkey Trade: Syria’s economy minister is set to meet Turkey’s trade leadership in Gaziantep to map a new phase of trade and investment ties. UN Warning: UN chief Guterres warned the Middle East risks a full resumption of conflict as hostilities widen.

US-Syria Tensions: The US carried out a large wave of precision strikes on Syrian targets, with analysts calling it costly “political theater” rather than a clear strategy, as Washington also faces fresh claims of Iran-linked retaliation across the region. Regional Diplomacy: Turkey and Saudi Arabia signed major railway and logistics memorandums aimed at reviving the Hejaz Railway corridor, with plans to connect through Syria and Jordan and potentially extend toward Oman—an overland trade push that would bypass key maritime chokepoints. Syria’s Economy & Energy: Syria’s energy minister said Damascus is pitching itself as a regional energy hub to attract investment, unveiling partnerships with major international firms and a $7 billion Qatar-linked deal covering electricity, infrastructure and renewables. Security & Counterterrorism: Syrian authorities reported detaining 235 people and disrupting ISIS plots over three months, including arrests across Hama, Homs, Deir ez-Zor, Aleppo and Damascus. Humanitarian Outlook: FEWS NET warned food insecurity may stay at Crisis levels through September, driven by fuel costs, inflation and reduced aid, especially for displaced families in northwest Syria. Local Governance & Returns: Displaced Kurds in Sere Kaniye (Ras al-Ain) said they’re still awaiting an official return timetable despite coordination meetings and some local measures like road reopenings.

Euphrates Dam Flood Aftermath: Syria shut the final spillway gates at the Euphrates Dam after two weeks of severe flooding, with releases now normalized and water routed through turbines to restore power, after heavy rainfall and surges from Türkiye forced emergency openings that damaged farmland and water facilities. Protests and Jobs Pressure: Workers at Damascus-area factories Zenobia Ceramics and Madar staged strikes over wages and living costs, while residents in Hasakah and Raqqa joined protests demanding basic services and economic relief. Damascus-Türkiye Economic Push: Türkiye’s ambassador in Damascus urged long-term investment partnerships and highlighted Aleppo-Idlib as a priority area, as Syria’s economy minister called Türkiye its “natural partner” and said Damascus is updating rules for trade, investment, banking, and industry. Energy Cooperation: Egypt and Syria discussed expanding oil and gas ties to support recovery, including work on natural gas cooperation via the Arab Gas Pipeline. Quneitra Raid: Israeli forces arrested a young man in Umm al-Luqs farm during a raid in Quneitra and also installed barbed wire near the ceasefire line, with reports of beatings and phone confiscations. US Strikes Critique: A report claims a late-Friday U.S. wave of strikes on Syria—framed as retaliation—was costly “political theater,” targeting rural structures with expensive munitions.

Tourism & Recovery: Syria kicked off its 2026 summer tourism season with President Ahmad al-Sharaa in Tartus, spotlighting repairs to transport and visitor infrastructure, including the upgraded Al-Tahouna Port to Arwad Island, plus readiness by tourist police, civil defence, and the Red Crescent. Energy Cooperation: Egypt and Syria discussed oil and gas collaboration to help rebuild Syria’s energy sector, including follow-ups on gas supply plans via the Arab Gas Pipeline and technical training with Egyptian firms. Cross-Border Trade: A large convoy of Iraqi tanker trucks carrying fuel oil entered Syria via Rabia-Yarubiyah, heading to Baniyas as part of efforts to route exports through Syria amid Hormuz-linked shipping pressure. Regional Security Fallout: Air travel disruptions returned across Syria, Iraq, and the wider region after renewed Iran-Israel exchanges, with Syria’s airspace reported closed again during the escalation. Foreign Fighters & Deterrence: Belgium’s security services say returned women from IS camps appear to have renounced extremism, while Syria’s new authorities face US conditions tied to rejecting terrorism and preventing proxy influence. Conflict Trends: A Norwegian study reports 2025 saw the highest number of state-based conflicts since WWII and a sharp rise in civilian deaths, with Israel’s operations in Syria among the cited drivers.

Israel-Iran Ceasefire Tense Pause: Netanyahu said Israel’s fight is “not finished” after Iran missile salvos and Israel retaliatory strikes, but both sides announced a halt to direct operations following Trump pressure, leaving a fragile “ceasefire within the ceasefire” risk. Southern Syria Airspace: Syria extended closure of its southern air corridors and kept Damascus Airport suspended, while regional flight disruptions continued as tensions eased then flared. Cross-Border Fuel Push via Syria: Iraq boosted exports through Syria as more than 150 fuel tankers entered via Rabia–Al-Yarubiyah, with plans to raise northern-route volumes and reduce reliance on Hormuz. Israeli Incursions in Quneitra: Reports say Israeli forces assaulted children in Al-Rafidah, confiscating phones, and conducted separate incursions and detentions in Quneitra. Damascus Foreign-Fighter Fallout: A statement by Uzbek-origin fighters criticized Syria’s new government over pressure on foreign combatants, spotlighting Damascus’s security and sovereignty challenge after Assad’s fall. Belgian Repatriation Ruling: A Brussels court ordered Belgium to take steps to repatriate a Belgian mother and her child detained in al-Roj camp.

Iran-Israel Escalation: Iran fired missiles at Israel for the first time since the April ceasefire, prompting sirens and Israel saying it intercepted the barrage. Retaliation Cycle: Israel then struck Iran’s Mahshahr petrochemical complex and other military targets, defying Trump’s call for restraint and raising fears the truce could unravel. Regional Airspace Disruptions (Syria Included): Iraq closed airspace for 72 hours and Syria shut southern air corridors and suspended Damascus airport operations for 12 hours, with flights rerouted to Aleppo. US Mediation Pressure: Trump said he would urge Netanyahu not to retaliate and claimed a deal with Tehran is close, while Iran warned renewed hostilities could affect US talks. Local Syria Tensions: In Jazira, protesters blocked fuel routes near al-Hol over worsening living conditions and anger at slow government-SDF integration. US-Syria Security Debate: A US House amendment backed SDF integration into Syria’s security institutions but demanded assessment of professionalization and raised concerns about command issues and minority rights. Culture & Memory: A documentary revisits Homs’ wartime trauma, offering a visual “hymn” to the bombed-out city.

Airspace Disruptions: Syria and Iraq shut parts of their airspace after Iran launched missiles at Israel, with Syria closing southern air corridors and suspending Damascus International Airport operations for 12 hours, while Iraq halted flights for 72 hours; Iran also closed its western airspace. Iran-Israel Escalation: Tehran said the strikes were a “warning” tied to Israel’s action in Lebanon, as Israel reported intercepting all incoming missiles but warned its defenses are “not hermetic,” with sirens sounding across northern Israel. Regional Diplomacy: Qatar’s foreign minister held a call with Syria’s top diplomat, discussing bilateral ties and mediation efforts to reduce wider Middle East tensions. Syria Domestic Security: Trump praised Syria’s leadership, saying President Ahmed al-Sharaa is doing a “good job” and suggesting Syria could help facilitate steps related to Lebanon. Humanitarian Risk: A child was killed in a landmine blast in southern Idlib, underscoring ongoing danger from leftover ordnance.

War Crimes Accountability: Syria’s Interior Ministry says it has arrested former Assad-era commander Shuaib Mahmoud Ibrahim in Hama’s Masyaf area, accusing him of war crimes and involvement in operations against opposition-held areas, after an intelligence-led surveillance and weapons seizure. Security Forces Integration: In Qamishli, officials say Asayish officers have begun integration into Syria’s Interior Ministry, with interviews for the first batch of 100 officers and plans to strengthen stability in Hasakah, including preparations for returns to Ras al-Ain. Citizenship & Rights: UNHCR welcomed Syria’s presidential decree granting citizenship to Kurds, noting more than 10,500 applications since April and support for applicants across Damascus, Aleppo, Hasakah, Raqqa and Deir ez-Zor. Humanitarian Repatriation: Five Moroccan women have returned from northeastern Syria after completing legal steps via Moroccan diplomatic channels, though travel costs remain a major barrier. Regional Context: The US is reportedly considering redirecting frozen Iranian assets for Gulf reconstruction, as tensions with Iran continue to ripple across the region. Local Developments: Reports from rural Damascus say a second mass grave was found in Qara, with forensic work ongoing.